December is here! It’s officially okay to mention the word “Christmas” without being sighed out of the room. While the decorations go up and the Christmas wrapping begins, many of us start to wonder whether or not it’ll be a white Christmas this year.

There aren’t very many models that go out as far as Christmas day, but the CFS is a model that does. What does it show for the run up to Christmas and indeed, the big day itself?

The run up to Christmas looks fairly unsettled, low pressure to the North-West and high pressure to the South means milder, wetter weather coming in from the Atlantic.

CFS chart showing an unsettled run-up to Christmas day

By Christmas day itself, we see an area of high pressure ridging Northwards across the UK turning things a little more settled, though with low pressure close to the North-West there’s always a chance it could be a little more unsettled here.

Whilst the CFS is just of course one model & one that is very rarely accurate at that range, it does fit remarkably well with the ECM models ensemble mean for the Christmas period.

A sneak look ahead towards the New Year period and it looks like Atlantic weather could still be with us bringing further areas of low pressure, though perhaps a small sign of something a little colder once again.

Conclusion:

Christmas day itself looks likely to be better in the South with high pressure building in, further North and West closer to the area of low pressure, the chance of some rain/windy weather on the big day.

At this early stage taking into account all the data that is currently available, it seems Christmas is more likely to be green, rather than white. We will of course keep you updated with future Christmas updates!j

Daniel has been interested in weather all his life and learned to forecast the weather during his teenage years. His favourite season is winter and his favourite weather is snowfall and thunderstorms.

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