The theme has been mild and changeable this week. This looks set to continue into the coming weekend but relatively cooler on Sunday.

Saturday

The remains of Storm Erik will clear to the northeast of the UK through Saturday morning although as it does so, it will bring the risk of 50 to 70 mph gales through Northern Ireland, Scotland and parts of northern England, calming down by midday and the afternoon but remaining quite windy.

On the western flank of Erik as it clears, there will be further outbreaks of rain over Scotland which will build up through the day to bring rainfall accumulations exceeding 20mm over quite a large area resulting in the risk of flooding here – highest amounts will be over high ground.

Northern Ireland, Wales and much of England will be dry during Saturday once Erik clears with relatively moderate winds and the chance of a scattered shower. Some rain is possible to push into southern parts of Wales and England by the afternoon and pushing into the southeast overnight.

Maximum temperatures ranging between 7-11°C, coolest in the north of Scotland and mildest in the southeast of England. Little risk of frost overnight with winds moderate in nature and cloud to the north and south of the country.

Sunday

Rain will clear the southeast of England during Sunday morning leaving the country in a northwesterly flow. This will result in relatively cooler conditions for the day but not particularly cool by any means with maximum temperatures rising to 6-9°C in the afternoon. Some showers will develop in the flow and spread southwards with the outside chance of these turning wintry over the Highlands and Pennines.

As skies clear and winds become calmer Sunday night, the risk of air frost grows.

Next week

High pressure looks set to build in on Monday centred to the south and southeast of the UK drawing in a southwesterly flow on its northern flank. This is likely to bring a lot of cloud into the north and west with the chance of drizzle and light rain in the thickest of the cloud. Very dry in the south and east of the UK. Temperatures rather on the mild side with the prospects of some very mild conditions by mid-week although this is uncertain for now – we’ll have more details in the week ahead forecast on Sunday.

Nothing cold on the horizon.

Summary

An unsettled weekend with some very wet weather in Scotland on Saturday and further gales early on for much of the north of the UK. Some wet weather later on into early Sunday in the south but drier and brighter in between both fronts. Sunday will be a cooler day but only relatively so with some scattered showers and variable sunny spells.

Sean Bruen is a forecaster for Metcast (and Snow Watch). His main interests are historical and long range weather. He LOVES snow (his Twitter account is @SnowbieWx, go figure!) and his favourite season is Winter.

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