February has gotten off to a changeable and unsettled start but the coming week looks like bringing a change in fortunes as the weather turns drier due to the influence of high pressure from central Europe sending a ridge to the UK. It is looking relatively mild with even the possibility of an early taste of Spring later in the week. Let’s take it day by day.

Monday

The new working week is expected to start off fine as high pressure builds up from the south sending a ridge northwards. This will result in a dry day for the UK with sunny spells here and there. There is the possibility of some scattered showers around the Shetland Isles and cloud may thicken later on in the day in the northwest of Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland as a weak front approaches nearby here.

Maximum temperatures during Monday ranging between 6-12°C, coolest over the Shetland Isles but most should be in double digits.

Little air frost expected Monday night into early Tuesday away from frost hollows in the south of the country where clear skies take place.

Tuesday

High pressure will continue to ridge in during Tuesday over England but sinking somewhat southwards into France allowing a weak front to push down from the northwest bringing some outbreaks of light rain or drizzle to Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales although any rain on the front will tend to weaken as it pushes further into the high pressure becoming only a band of cloud by the afternoon. Some sunny spells in the south of the country.

The positioning of the high pressure on Tuesday force the wind direction to veer to a southwesterly bringing in mild conditions for all of the UK now. As a consequence, maximum temperatures are expected to range between 8-13°C during Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday

The ridge from the high pressure over central Europe will intensify somewhat on Wednesday allowing the weak front to dissipate and as winds turn a bit more southeasterly for much of the UK away from perhaps Northern Ireland and north and western regions of Scotland, skies will attempt to become clearer with more sunny spells likely during the day. Further cloud with the odd peak of sun expected over Northern Ireland and western Scotland as winds remain southwesterly here.

Maximum temperatures on Wednesday will be on the mild side ranging between 9-13°C. There is the possibility of relatively higher values in the sunshine in the southeast of the UK.

Thursday

Winds are expected to turn southerly on Thursday drawing air up from North Africa and as a result, it is likely to be a very mild day. There may be a feeling of Spring in the air especially in any sunny spells. Maximum temperatures during Thursday afternoon could rise to 14 or 15°C somewhere in the south and east of the UK or even higher whilst for the vast majority between 10-13°C . The light winds added on will make it very pleasant indeed although breezier further northwestwards where there’s likely to be more cloud around but even here, there’s the potential for decent spells of sunshine.

A weak front could reach the northwest by the end of the day and result in some outbreaks of light to moderate rain particularly over Northern Ireland.

Friday

Continuous influence from high pressure to the south of the UK over England and parts of Wales on Friday resulting in further dry conditions and variable sunny spells. Cloudier in the north and northwest with outbreaks of rain and on the breezy side.

Maximum temperatures ranging between 10-14°C though do not rule out higher values in the southeast of England.

Next weekend and beyond

Current guidance suggests that this settled and benign pattern will continue into next weekend and possibly into the week after. However, there is the possibility of weak fronts touching the northwest of the country from time to time resulting in cloudier and wetter conditions here but even there, hardly a washout by any means. All in all, looking settled.

Sean Bruen is a forecaster for Metcast (and Snow Watch). His main interests are historical and long range weather. He LOVES snow (his Twitter account is @SnowbieWx, go figure!) and his favourite season is Winter.

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