A few days ago we posted an article discussing the EC46 model and what it was showing, you can view that by Clicking Here

The model runs every Monday and Thursday so today we’re going to discuss where we currently stand and what we can expect going forward into December.

Week one (the chart above for the next 7 days) shows low pressure out to the West and a ridge of high pressure extending Northwards in the Atlantic. This week will be low pressure dominated and feature a North/South split, milder conditions will persist in the South whilst further North it’ll always be that bit colder with the occasional risk of snowfall over higher ground.

Week 2 shows high pressure across Scandinavia and low pressure out in the Atlantic. This is suggestive of colder Easterly winds through the second week of December. Temperatures are expected to drop widely below average with fog and frost being the main theme with perhaps a chance of some snowier spells particularly in Eastern England as the chart below shows in green.

ECM chart showing the potential for snow showers (green) in Eastern parts next week
GFS temperature anomaly chart showing below average temperatures are likely

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Week 3 above shows low pressure perhaps making itself known whilst blocking relaxes a little to our North-East. This has the potential to be a battleground event bringing a period of more significant snowfall, however at a 3 week lead time the charts become rather unreliable so this is a low confidence outcome for the time being.

Summary

After an unsettled week high pressure will build Northwards across the UK and towards Scandinavia, whilst things will turn more settled it’s likely it’ll turn increasingly cold as next week progresses with the potential (60%) of deeper cold moving in across the UK bringing a more prominent snowfall risk primarily but perhaps not exclusively so across Eastern most counties.

Daniel has been interested in weather all his life and learned to forecast the weather during his teenage years. His favourite season is winter and his favourite weather is snowfall and thunderstorms.

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