The EC46 day forecast is out once again and gives us an idea of patterns going forward through the rest of December and indeed, into January. I will start this post by saying that possible Stratospheric developments and developments over the Pacific mean that the model is probably going to be a little more unreliable than it usually would be.
Week one (out to next weekend) is suggestive of low pressure coming in off the Atlantic likely introducing milder, wetter and perhaps windy weather across the UK once again. This is fairly well supported within the other models so we can be reasonably confident of this outcome now.
Week 2 – Christmas Period
Week 2, of course the Christmas period the EC46 shows extensive low pressure anomalies across the UK likely continuing the wet, windy and unsettled theme that week 1 ended with. Interestingly, towards the new year period we see a ridge of high pressure build to the North West (though temporary) bringing possibly colder conditions.
The above high pressure feature ties in with the latest GFS forecast for high pressure to build and usher in colder conditions for the Christmas period
Weeks 3 and 4
Week 3 and 4, whilst I cannot post the charts to show those weeks show low pressure dominating between transient ridges of high pressure bringing temporarily more settled conditions, particularly across the Southern half of the UK.
For cold lovers, the outlook isn’t particularly pleasing on the EC46 model, however! Weeks 3&4 are very uncertain, with a possible Sudden Stratospheric Warming late December and various other background signals suggesting a return to blocking is possible as we approach the Christmas period, it’s difficult to fully get behind the EC46 for the extended range period.