The last couple of EC46 updates have been rather mild and unsettled looking with low pressure over or close to the UK however there’s been a rather big shift in the model in the latest run. 

Week 1

This weekend low pressure will be pushing in across the UK bringing the risk of snowfall to some areas (we currently have an advisory out which you can view by clicking here)

Low pressure is expected to remain with us through into the new week bringing spells of wet and possibly at times windy weather, particularly to Northern and Western parts.

Week 2

Week 2 continues to see low pressure over or close to the UK although it has begun to relax a bit so wet and windy spells beginning to become less frequent. As low pressure moves Southwards through the UK we may see some colder weather coming in across the UK from time to time, some other models suggesting the Christmas period could be rather cold.

Week 3

Week 3 is when the model begins to get very, very interesting. The model builds high pressure back towards Scandinavia sending low pressure systems along with the jet stream to the South of the UK. This turns things settled across the UK but increasingly cold.

During week 3 there’s a signal for high pressure to retrogress towards Greenland ushering in much colder Easterly winds. This has been expected for a while with the current goings on in the Stratosphere, but it’s good to see the signal progress down into the model outputs. 

January as a whole on the EC46 is looking cold. Whilst blocking relaxes on the model towards the middle of January the jet stream remains South of the UK keeping things rather chilly, we then see blocking returning in a big way across Scandinavia and once again to the North of the UK as we approach the end of January. 

Stay tuned, January could be a month to remember! 

Daniel has been interested in weather all his life and learned to forecast the weather during his teenage years. His favourite season is winter and his favourite weather is snowfall and thunderstorms.