The latest EC46 update is suggestive of a blocked and potentially cold pattern across the UK and Europe. It has remained consistent with it’s previous update so we can have a little more confidence in the signal it appears to be showing.
The period of cold zonality has been well forecast within the models and the EC46 update continues the theme. High Pressure in the mid-Atlantic keeps winds in a broadly North/North-West flow over the next week keeping temperatures largely below average. With colder air across the UK there will be a risk of snowfall on occasions especially for Northern parts of the UK.
Week 2 continues the overall theme, high pressure in the Atlantic and low pressure to the South and East keeping things on the chillier side with a further risk of snow, primarily in the North as weather fronts move into that colder air.
Week 3 the model begins to see a change in our weather pattern. High Pressure shifts from the Atlantic Northwards towards Greenland and this ads forcing to the trough to our East pushing it Southwards. This pattern is indicative of Easterly or North-Easterly winds potentially bringing in some more sustained colder weather.
The pattern in week 3 intensifies during week 4 with blocking becoming established and strengthening across Greenland forcing the Jet Stream and it’s associated low pressure systems to the South. Should this pattern develop as forecast the weather will turn much colder from the East and the risk of widespread snow would increase.
While the EC46 has been consistent in it’s previous updates, it can’t be taken too seriously beyond week 2. Thanks to the recent Sudden Stratospheric Warming models are continuing to struggle to forecast the pattern as a surge of Easterly winds moves down through the Stratosphere, the exact effect/timing of this downwelling remains uncertain.
The next few weeks are highly likely to be below average with winds generally from the North or North-West and there will be spells of snow especially across the North. However beyond that, there’s very low confidence exactly how cold it’ll become and whether or not we’ll see a sustained period of cold weather.