Last week we issued our first Christmas outlook and back then Christmas was looking rather mild and Atlantic dominated. Has anything changed?

Unfortunately, no. Below is the EC46 day model for the Christmas week period.

The chart shows a strong single for low pressure to be situated across the United Kingdom suggesting a powerful Jet and milder weather. The CFS which is the model we used last week has remained rather consistent in this.

CFS Chart for Christmas Day.

One caveat is that these models are fairly unreliable in the extended timeframe. The latest 6z GFS for example now reaches Christmas eve and shows a more blocked, colder pattern setting in across the UK.

Between Christmas and new year the CFS model suggests low pressure will continue to dominate bringing further wet and windy weather across the UK. A complete yuckfest if you’re a cold lover!

The EC46 disagrees and begins to build high pressure to the North of the UK which would bring colder conditions, so a lot of uncertainty regarding the last week of 2018!

Summary

Based on the latest forecast data available, Christmas is continuing to look milder and wetter as opposed to colder and snowier – However, there’s plenty of time for that to change.

The week between Christmas and New Year is looking to see a continuation of low pressure dominated weather although there are signs within the EC46 model that blocking could begin to re-establish itself to the North of the UK bringing the risk of colder weather as we approach the new year, though the CFS suggests the opposite so there remains a lot of uncertainty.

If you want to talk Christmas weather we have a Winter Model output discussion and a more christmassy thread called Weather, Gifts, Traditions. Get involved 🙂 

Daniel has been interested in weather all his life and learned to forecast the weather during his teenage years. His favourite season is winter and his favourite weather is snowfall and thunderstorms.