Halloween tended to be on the cooler side this year but for Bonfire Night i.e. 5th November, just a week later, it is looking quite different. Let’s see what Bonfire Night will offer…

Introduction

The chart below shows an area of low pressure just to the west of the UK sending a weak front eastwards and northwards during Monday, 5 November 2018 and through the course of Bonfire Night too, continuing to weaken as it does so. This is likely to bring a lot of cloud to the west of the UK including Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and southwestern England with outbreaks of light to patchy rain.

Rainfall

The below charts show the predicted rainfall totals and their progression northwards and eastwards during Bonfire Night 2018 from two different computer models, the GFS (first one) and the ECM (second one). The rainfall totals are divided into three hour periods. Though the rain could get relatively heavier for a time during the evening hours of Bonfire Night near the west of Scotland, it is generally expected to be of light nature. Rainfall totals by the end of Bonfire Night likely to range between 2-5mm over Northern Ireland; 5-10mm over the west of Scotland; 1-3mm over central England and the West Country.

The progression of the rain northwards and eastwards is expected to be at a fairly moderate speed with rain falling in regions at a max of 1-4 hours for most areas, clearing the north by early Tuesday morning.

Temperatures

The other point of significance about Bonfire Night 2018 is the expected temperatures. Minimum temperatures overnight into Tuesday 6 November are likely to be well above average for the time of year getting down to 5-8°C over Northern Ireland, Scotland and parts of Wales generally whilst 9-12°C elsewhere over England.

These mild temperatures are down to the fact that there possibly will be lots of cloud during the period and the wind coming from a southerly direction drawing up air from France.

Summary

Bonfire Night 2018 is forecast to be a mild one with patchy rain spreading northwards and eastwards, heaviest totals expected to be in the west of Scotland. The rain will likely clear the north by daylight hours on Tuesday morning.

Sean Bruen is a forecaster for Metcast (and Snow Watch). His main interests are historical and long range weather. He LOVES snow (his Twitter account is @SnowbieWx, go figure!) and his favourite season is Winter.