The talk in the headlines recently has been the exceptionally mild weather in the UK with Scotland recording its highest February temperature on record last Thursday with a maximum of 18.3°C at Aboyne (beating the 17.9°C record from February 1897) and now provisionally today, Wales has recorded its highest February temperature on record with a maximum of 19.1°C at Gogerddan (beating the 18.6°C record from February 1990). This very mild weather is set to continue into the early part of the new working week but there’s a change expected in the pattern by Thursday as conditions turn not only cooler but also wetter.


Some early morning mist and fog will occur, especially to the northeast of England. However, this should attempt to burn away as the day goes with widespread spells of sunshine across the vast majority of the UK which will allow temperatures to rise to high levels during Monday again after a cool start particularly in the south where there could be some air frost. Cloudier to the north of Scotland though with some outbreaks of drizzle especially over the Shetland Isles where maximum temperatures could be around 9/10°C whilst elsewhere ranging between 12-17°C, locally there could be 18 or 19°C.


A weak front will bring some cloud to Northern Ireland and western Scotland on Tuesday but another day with plenty of sunshine is expected with the exception of some morning mist or fog. Very mild once more in the sunshine with maximum temperatures set to rise to 12-18°C through the afternoon with 19°C possible locally, following a cool morning. Even over the Shetland Isles, it is likely to be milder with 11°C and some sunshine.


The high pressure system will weaken on Wednesday somewhat allowing cloudier conditions to filter in from the west and this will help to suppress the temperatures down from preceding days but still milder than average for the time of year with afternoon highs ranging between 10-15°C. It is likely to remain dry despite the cloudier conditions on the whole.


A front will push into the southwest of the UK on Thursday giving with a lot of cloud and some outbreaks of rain over England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Still on the relatively mild side but afternoon highs continue to descend with maximum temperatures in the 10-12°C range. Northern Scotland has the best chance of dry weather and brightness on Thursday.


As Thursday’s front clears to the east, a ridge of high pressure will build in briefly for the UK during the early hours of Friday which will result in clearer skies and a possible frost for some. However, the cloud will thicken quickly from the west as more fronts from the Atlantic approach bringing stronger winds and outbreaks of rain. Temperatures still above average for the time of year in the 9-13°C range but of course these are down on values that the UK have reached recently and to start the new week.

Next weekend

Quite a pattern change on the way next weekend as the Atlantic wakes up bringing bouts of wet weather across the UK. There will always be some drier and brighter interludes in between mind you. Temperatures going back down towards average compared to the exceptional mild conditions we have had recently but due to relativity, it will feel noticeably chilly and a shock to the system. Becoming more changeable all in all.


The very mild conditions continue at the beginning of the working week with plenty of fine sunshine expected. Turning cloudier and relatively cooler by mid-week with some outbreaks of rain appearing from Thursday onwards. It’s all relativity speaking though as the pattern is not far from a typical UK setup in contrast to the Spring-like weather of the past week.

Sean Bruen is a forecaster for Metcast (and Snow Watch). His main interests are historical and long range weather. He LOVES snow (his Twitter account is @SnowbieWx, go figure!) and his favourite season is Winter.


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