In our week ahead forecast on Sunday just gone, we noted the risk of an area of low pressure pushing in from the west of Ireland during the course of Friday, November 9th. This low, which is expected to have a minimum pressure of around 959hPa as it reaches our shores during Friday afternoon, is likely to bring some very wet and blustery conditions tomorrow Friday across the UK with a band of heavy rain sweeping eastwards during the midday hours into the afternoon, reaching the east later in the day.

Rainfall

According to latest guidance, the heaviest of the rain will be concentrated around the mid-afternoon hours in Northern Ireland, parts of Wales, northwestern England and southwestern Scotland. In these regions especially near Northern Ireland where this week has already been so wet, between 10-30mm could fall in the space of a few hours, maybe even more. The first GIF below shows the expected hourly totals and progression of the rain band through Friday into Saturday whilst the second one shows the expected accumulated rainfall totals during the same period.

The UK Met Office have released several yellow status rain & wind warnings including the whole of Northern Ireland, parts of central Scotland, parts of southwestern Scotland and southwestern England and south Wales. In these regions, there is likely to be disruption to transport from heavy rain and some fairly strong wind gusts along with a risk of spot flooding particularly in Northern Ireland where rain will fall on already pretty saturated grounds. You can find the latest updates on warnings from the UK Met Office here.

Wind Gusts

During Friday afternoon, rain will possibly be accompanied by the outbreaks of strong winds making for very unpleasant conditions during the period especially if you’re commuting. Inland regions could reach maximum gusts between 40 to 50 mph, most likely in the southwest of the country during early Friday afternoon whilst in the north of England and parts of Scotland later on Friday. On the coast, gusts could exceed 60 mph.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is this Storm Deirdre?

When writing this update, the low pressure has not been named Storm Deirdre by the UK Met Office or Met Éireann. Anywhere you see it currently mentioned is from the mainstream media trying to scaremonger people. Don’t be fooled into thinking this has been a named storm. Whilst it will make for some awful conditions, it’s not unusual for an event like this to occur in late Autumn in the UK.

How will I be affected?

Please consider checking out the UK Met Office warnings page for little details on impacts in your area if a weather warning has been released. All I’ll say is just be aware of potential disruption to transport through Friday wherever you are in the country.

Sean Bruen is a forecaster for Metcast (and Snow Watch). His main interests are historical and long range weather. He LOVES snow (his Twitter account is @SnowbieWx, go figure!) and his favourite season is Winter.