One of the biggest weather stories of 2018 since the Spring has been the frequent influence of high pressure in the UK though much of November and December have brought rather more unsettled conditions. This theme looks like it’s going to return for the end of the year with a settled Christmas period coming up.

Monday (Christmas Eve)

A warm front will reside just to the west and southwest of the UK which will bring relatively mild conditions to the southwest of England during the course of Christmas Eve but also some outbreaks of rain. Maximum temperatures here reaching 12°C in the afternoon. A touch of air frost to begin the day in the north over many parts of Scotland and some places in northern England with the risk of mist and fog. There’s a chance that this mist and fog could remain stubborn for parts of the north throughout Christmas Eve which will suppress daytime temperatures to only 1 to 4°C. There will be the odd sunny spell in the east of the UK but mostly cloudy with maximum temperatures ranging between 5 to 8°C including over Northern Ireland too.

Some of the fog in the north has the possibility of becoming freezing fog overnight into Christmas Day which will result in air frost for another night here. There will be a risk of air frost too under any clear skies in the north and east with minimum temperatures dropping to -1/-2°C by Christmas morning.

Tuesday (Christmas Day)

The warm front will slide up western regions of the country during the night into Christmas Day introducing milder air for all here meaning that maximum temperatures in western Scotland, Northern Ireland, western Wales and southwestern England will reach double figures (10-12°C) during the day with the wind from a southerly direction. Very cloudy in the mild conditions with an outside chance of drizzle especially over Northern Ireland in the thickest of the cloud. Air frost early on in Scotland and northern England will clear during the morning with cloud increasing from the west. Maximum temperatures over the rest of England, Wales and Scotland likely to range between 5 to 9°C.

All in all, a very quiet Christmas with a lot of cloud lying around and temperatures not far from average for some but mild out west. No White Christmas this year anywhere in the country.

Wednesday (Boxing Day)

An occlusion will result in outbreaks of rain to the northwest of Scotland on Boxing Day. Some parts of the southeast of England could have the risk of grass frost close to the area of high pressure but with the high pressure sinking southwards into Europe, the country becomes more under the influence of the southerly wind. This means that Boxing Day will be a milder day for all regions with maximum temperatures ranging from 8 to 11°C which is not far from average for the time of year, coolest to the southeast of England where there is the chance of mist and fog. A cloudy day generally with the outside chance of the odd sunny spell here and there, more likely to the east.

Thursday & Friday

High pressure will continue to ridge through the UK at the end of the week but cloud will remain stubborn with the odd sunny interval in some parts of the country. Maximum temperatures not far from average for the time of year around 7 to 11°C, coolest in the southeast of England close to the area of high pressure. Both days likely to be frost free for the vast majority of places due to the lack of clear skies.

Next weekend

The last weekend of 2018 is likely to continue the same theme with high pressure being the dominant feature with temperatures close to average or a little above average as southwesterly winds become evident. However, the cost of this is that there is going to be a lot of cloud around again with the chance of drizzle in the thickest of cloud.


Overall, a lot of settled weather for the last full week of 2018 with high pressure influence throughout though some outbreaks of rain to the north during mid-week. Temperatures fairly cool to start in the north and east but becoming milder as the week goes on whilst remaining mild in the west during the whole period.

Thank you for following us this year. If you would like to support us further or say Merry Christmas in the form of a monetary gift please consider donating what you can.

In the sprit of Christmas Mark Clifford has decided that 100% of donations made between 22nd and 27th December 2018 will be divided between myself, Dan and Chailey.

Merry Christmas everybody!  

Sean Bruen is a forecaster for Metcast (and Snow Watch). His main interests are historical and long range weather. He LOVES snow (his Twitter account is @SnowbieWx, go figure!) and his favourite season is Winter.